Abstract

Agriculture in Nanded district of Maharashtra’s Marathwada region faces growing stress from climate change, water shortages, soil decline, and socioeconomic challenges. This study offers a concise environmental assessment using physics-based models, climate trends, and local socio-ecological insights. Climate records, land-use data, soil characteristics, and irrigation practices were examined using analytical tools such as heat-unit (Growing Degree Day) modeling, evapotranspiration-based water estimation, soil-moisture retention calculations, and groundwater extraction analysis. Findings show that fluctuating monsoons, declining rainfall, and rising temperatures have reduced crop productivity by nearly 18–32% in sensitive crops, especially soybean, tur, and cotton. Soil moisture retention has declined to nearly half of earlier levels due to organic matter loss, while inefficient irrigation practices contribute to excessive groundwater use. Drip systems demonstrate the potential to reduce water use by nearly 60%, making them vital for drought-prone regions. Drawing on scientific assessment and community practices of the Mannervarlu, Maria, and Madia tribes, this paper suggests diversified cropping, agro forestry, ET-guided irrigation, and improved soil management as pathways toward a resilient agricultural system. The study concludes that integrating simple physics-based tools with local knowledge is essential for sustainable farming in Nanded.